As of today, Kari and I are still recovering from a wicked Summer cold which we have had for more than a week, but we are certainly feeling better. I can't remember the last time I had a cold in the Summer time. In fact, I can't really remember the last time I had a cold, period, but it's definately not fun. The one plus is that I was able to finish reading my last book. Aside from that, though, I am just glad to be feeling better.
It is supposed to be in the high 80's today, and I am looking forward to some barbecue, and perhaps one or two ice cold beers.
Saturday, August 13, 2005
Polling Data
As someone who is somewhat versed in statistics, I find the media's fascination with polls to be....fascinating. It is truly amazing how many polls tell different stories and how some data is outright manipulated. It is also an interesting American (possibly international, but definately American) phenomenon that people want to be part of the middle or average. For whatever reason, if you tell somebody to answer a question yes, no, or maybe, they will usually choose maybe.
I can't explain why this is, but it does help to answer alot of questions about how insignificant polling data is.
For example, I was looking into polling data on the issue of abortion. One poll, conducted at the beginning of the month suggested that about 15% of this country believes that there should be more restrictions nationwide on abortion. 33% believes that abortions should only be performed in the case of rape, incest, or when the woman's life is in danger. Another 15% believes that only an endangered woman's life warrants a legal abortion, and 5% say abortions should never be legal. This is a rather nondescript question more subject to "middling" as some people might call it.
On the other hand, in a poll conducted in April by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics suggested that 72% of respondents believe that children (women under the age of 18) must require the consent of their parents to receive an abortion. A CBS News poll in July confirms this. This issue is less subject to "middling" because it is a specific question.
The news media should use less polls to attempt to figure out what they want to know, because until they are done correctly, they won't reveal anything
I can't explain why this is, but it does help to answer alot of questions about how insignificant polling data is.
For example, I was looking into polling data on the issue of abortion. One poll, conducted at the beginning of the month suggested that about 15% of this country believes that there should be more restrictions nationwide on abortion. 33% believes that abortions should only be performed in the case of rape, incest, or when the woman's life is in danger. Another 15% believes that only an endangered woman's life warrants a legal abortion, and 5% say abortions should never be legal. This is a rather nondescript question more subject to "middling" as some people might call it.
On the other hand, in a poll conducted in April by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics suggested that 72% of respondents believe that children (women under the age of 18) must require the consent of their parents to receive an abortion. A CBS News poll in July confirms this. This issue is less subject to "middling" because it is a specific question.
The news media should use less polls to attempt to figure out what they want to know, because until they are done correctly, they won't reveal anything
Friday, August 12, 2005
The Estate Tax
The estate tax has been making the rounds in the press lately. I find the debate to be quite lame. I'd rather not focus on who deserves to be taxed on their death (at what price point), and rather focus on the righteousness of such a tax in the first place.
As in too many debates, people get lost in the details. The estate tax, like the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) because people don't seem to have a problem forcing the wealthy to pay an unfair tax. After all, they have enough money, right?
I'm sorry, but that is where I end the debate. The estate tax is a Communist idea, probably developed by Karl Marx in his "Communist Manifesto." In fact, the concept is plank #3, "Abolition of All Rights of Inheritance."
The principle in and of itself is so un-American, it is surprising that any Americans will stand for it. If the tax were to affect all American families, rather than just the very wealthy, at least it would be intellectually consistent. But, unfortunately, that would also likely completely erode the support of the tax.
I have no problems with wealthy people paying more in taxes than the poor (numerically, not on a rate basis, which is plank number 2 on the Marx hit list), but tax these individuals in ways that are consistent regardless of wealth. You can certainly find a way to make sure that these families pay their "fair share."
As in too many debates, people get lost in the details. The estate tax, like the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) because people don't seem to have a problem forcing the wealthy to pay an unfair tax. After all, they have enough money, right?
I'm sorry, but that is where I end the debate. The estate tax is a Communist idea, probably developed by Karl Marx in his "Communist Manifesto." In fact, the concept is plank #3, "Abolition of All Rights of Inheritance."
The principle in and of itself is so un-American, it is surprising that any Americans will stand for it. If the tax were to affect all American families, rather than just the very wealthy, at least it would be intellectually consistent. But, unfortunately, that would also likely completely erode the support of the tax.
I have no problems with wealthy people paying more in taxes than the poor (numerically, not on a rate basis, which is plank number 2 on the Marx hit list), but tax these individuals in ways that are consistent regardless of wealth. You can certainly find a way to make sure that these families pay their "fair share."
Recent Reading
My most recent book was called, "Highlanders" by Yo'av Karny. I found the book to be the most in-depth of current issues surrounding many of the states within the Caucasus region. For now, this shall be the end of my studies of the Caucasus. My next journey takes me a little east to Uzbekistan in a book called, "Chasing the Sea." I will keep you up to date, but thus far it is quite interesting. The author, Tom Bissell, was a Peace Corps volunteer from the mid-90's and is roughly my age, so it is certainly an interesting perspective.
After this, I am going to read more about the Mongol invasion and how it impacted this region of the world.
After this, I am going to read more about the Mongol invasion and how it impacted this region of the world.
Wednesday, August 03, 2005
Two Proufound Events
I may be naive about such things, but it seems there were two recent profound events that recently ocurred that should have implications for years.
The first, and most important, was the passing of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia. While in a coma for nearly a decade, certain factions of the Saudi royal family have been hoping for him to outlive the Crowned Prince Abdullah (now King Abdullah). This faction believed Abdullah to be too much of a reformer in the kingdom. Fortunately for this country, that faction has lost. Now we shall see the direction the kingdom shall take.
Second is the United States involvement in Kyrgystan and Uzbekistan. Both countries recently asked us to wrap up our military involvement in those countries in relation to our operations in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan is by far the least democratic of the two nations and has recently been accused of slaughtering several hundred dissidents. Despite our military necessity, we have been diplomatically nudging Uzbekistan to reform, which admittedly will be a difficult task. After hearing too much of this, Islam Karimov (president of Uzbekistan) asked the US to leave. To our credit, we did not tone down our reformer rhetoric despite our interests there (not to mention from an energy perspective). If we can follow through, this shall have positive ramifications for years to come.
The first, and most important, was the passing of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia. While in a coma for nearly a decade, certain factions of the Saudi royal family have been hoping for him to outlive the Crowned Prince Abdullah (now King Abdullah). This faction believed Abdullah to be too much of a reformer in the kingdom. Fortunately for this country, that faction has lost. Now we shall see the direction the kingdom shall take.
Second is the United States involvement in Kyrgystan and Uzbekistan. Both countries recently asked us to wrap up our military involvement in those countries in relation to our operations in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan is by far the least democratic of the two nations and has recently been accused of slaughtering several hundred dissidents. Despite our military necessity, we have been diplomatically nudging Uzbekistan to reform, which admittedly will be a difficult task. After hearing too much of this, Islam Karimov (president of Uzbekistan) asked the US to leave. To our credit, we did not tone down our reformer rhetoric despite our interests there (not to mention from an energy perspective). If we can follow through, this shall have positive ramifications for years to come.
Tuesday, July 26, 2005
Oregon State Budget
Today, the Oregon legislature tentatively has agreed to a budget for the 2006-2007 biennium. Of course, as most states do, more than 50% of the state budget goes towards funding public education.
One statement, however, caught my ear. This was that the Hillsboro, Oregon school district was going to have to suffer with a teacher to student ratio of 30 to 1. In reality, this probably means 35 to 40 students per classroom, with administration filling out the rest.
If I recall correctly, as a youngster in a private school (you know, the independently wealthy), every single year, each class I was in (2nd through 8th grade), started with 40 students. We didn't have teacher's aides. We never had a parent volunteer in the classroom.
I am not sure what the answer to the nation's school funding problems are. I don't claim to be an expert. But I know, that the more money that is spent on schools, the more money that is wasted. Kids don't need lower teacher to student ratios. They need more discipline and less lawyers involved in their education. They need parents who care about their kids succeeding in education and are willing to sacrifice everything in order to make sure this happens.
Until then, you can reduce the classroom size to 3 students per teacher, and it won't make a difference. Education costs will rise (read that taxes will rise) and students will be less and less successful.
One statement, however, caught my ear. This was that the Hillsboro, Oregon school district was going to have to suffer with a teacher to student ratio of 30 to 1. In reality, this probably means 35 to 40 students per classroom, with administration filling out the rest.
If I recall correctly, as a youngster in a private school (you know, the independently wealthy), every single year, each class I was in (2nd through 8th grade), started with 40 students. We didn't have teacher's aides. We never had a parent volunteer in the classroom.
I am not sure what the answer to the nation's school funding problems are. I don't claim to be an expert. But I know, that the more money that is spent on schools, the more money that is wasted. Kids don't need lower teacher to student ratios. They need more discipline and less lawyers involved in their education. They need parents who care about their kids succeeding in education and are willing to sacrifice everything in order to make sure this happens.
Until then, you can reduce the classroom size to 3 students per teacher, and it won't make a difference. Education costs will rise (read that taxes will rise) and students will be less and less successful.
Saturday, July 23, 2005
The Coming Hyperflation?
One of the reasons I am such a proponent of studying history (now that I am no longer in school) is that I believe if we don't know our history, we will most certainly repeat our mistakes. While this is an oft-used cliche, it is most certainly a truism.
Recently, Hawaiian legislators have decided to put a "price-cap" on gasoline prices. They have attempted to do this by capping wholesale sale prices. Have people forgotten why we had hyperinflation and gas lines in the 1970's? Apparently so.
It is quite simple, folks. If you put a cap on the price of an item in demand, shortages will occur. Hawaiian gas stations will need to begin rationing gas so that they can somewhat match supply with demand. When people get sick of the rationing, legislators will remove caps and cause prices to spike upward.
This example is not isolated. The same thing occurs because of rent-control in apartments, food in the former Soviet Union, etc. It is a very simple cause-and-effect and legislators in Hawaii are preparing to see it happen again. Hopefully, this virus will not spread.
Recently, Hawaiian legislators have decided to put a "price-cap" on gasoline prices. They have attempted to do this by capping wholesale sale prices. Have people forgotten why we had hyperinflation and gas lines in the 1970's? Apparently so.
It is quite simple, folks. If you put a cap on the price of an item in demand, shortages will occur. Hawaiian gas stations will need to begin rationing gas so that they can somewhat match supply with demand. When people get sick of the rationing, legislators will remove caps and cause prices to spike upward.
This example is not isolated. The same thing occurs because of rent-control in apartments, food in the former Soviet Union, etc. It is a very simple cause-and-effect and legislators in Hawaii are preparing to see it happen again. Hopefully, this virus will not spread.
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