London Bombing

I have a couple of very controversial thoughts regarding the recent terrorist attacks in London last Thursday. The first is that this bombing is an example of two things: first, international jihadism in the developed world is losing. Frankly, I am surprised that we aren't seeing this kind of thing every week! Despite the alleged complexity of the bombs themselves, this kind of activity doesn't require massive planning. I believe it shows that the movement is running out of people in developed countries who want to kill themselves (at this time, the bombing is not believed to have been carried out by suicide bombers).

The second comment I have is by far the more controversial: were it not for Spain's reaction to the Madrid bombings, this London attack may not have ocurred.

My thesis about the appeal of jihadism has been that these groups are emboldened by success, and they wain by defeat. Osama bin Laden said as much in his 1996 fatwa declaring war on the United States:

"...when tens of your solders were killed in minor battles and one American Pilot was dragged in the streets of Mogadishu you left the area carrying disappointment, humiliation, defeat and your dead with you. Clinton appeared in front of the whole world threatening and promising revenge , but these threats were merely a preparation for withdrawal. You have been disgraced by Allah and you withdrew; the extent of your impotence and weaknesses became very clear. It was a pleasure for the "heart" of every Muslim and a remedy to the "chests" of believing nations to see you defeated in the three Islamic cities of Beirut , Aden and Mogadishu."

This leads me to another unpopular statement which is that fighting against these groups will require many more thousands of American lives over maybe several decades. And while we should not allow ourselves to enter joyously into war, we must realize that this fight is far from over. And despite what some might believe (including former CIA Bin Laden chief, Michael Scheuer, whom I respect tremendously), if we were to withdraw our troops from the Middle East and stop supporting Israel, this will not end.