Sunday, July 09, 2006

Mexico...On the Verge of Collapse?

Last weekend's presidential election in Mexico seemed to be close, but fair. The ruling party's Felipe Calderon by 0.50%. This amounts to about 400,000 votes. This result is in contrast to the "populist" movement otherwise sweeping Latin America.

However, even before the election ocurred, the challenger, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, declared he would protest the votes if he lost. Consequently, he staged a rally in Mexico City, over which he was mayor, which drew a sizable crowd of about 1/4 million people. About 19 million people live in Mexico City and its suburbs.

The problem is that while the election was close, the monitors from the European Union have not noted any fraud.

Lopez Obrador will not be satisfied with any result, other than victory. Given the close results and the fact that his he has significant support, he and his suppporters could very easily overthrow the winning party, sending the country into chaos. Either way, the burgeoning "populist" movement in Latin America wins. If Lopez Obrador overthrows Calderon, the leftists will be in power. If chaos ensues, it is evidence of the weakness of the conservative platform.

This election may have very profound implicationsd on our own nation's security debates. If a revolution occurs in our neighbor to the South, will there even be a vocal opposition to closing the border?

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