"The Sling and the Stone" details the 4 generations of warfare from the use of the rifle to modern insurgent warfare, which the author details as 4th generation. It is not new, however. Col. Hammes traces the beginning of 4th generation warfare back to Mao Tse Tung.
As opposed to our involvement in World Wars I or II, 4th generation warfare is not about killing as many opposing forces as possible. In fact, it may not be about killing at all, but rather some political outcome the insurgent is fighting for. The insurgent knows that his military might, at least at present, is unable to match up with the counterinsurgent force. So the insurgent must do things that change the behavior of the decision makers for the counterinsurgent. This has more often than not, been voters.
4th generation wars are typically measured in decades, not months or years as a prior generation of warfare might have been. The bottom line is can the insurgent force wait out the counterinsurgent? Each situation is different, but one thing is for sure:
Any insurgent with half a brain will look at warfare over the past century and determine that counterinsurgencies are very difficult to fight and are the only way a small force can "defeat" a larger one, particularly with the technological advantage the United States maintains over nearly every potential threat. Furthermore, as long as the insurgent has more patience, the counterinsurgent will soon leave and allow the insurgent to make his political gains.
I believe that the primary message of this book is that our future enemies are not the large states we have fought in the past. While these are possible, we are far more likely to engage insurgencies. Unfortunately, our military establishment has been arming our forces not for counterinsurgency, but for high-technology conventional warfare. In other words, we are attempting to fight the last war, rather than trying to fight the next war. This can have devestating implications for our soldiers. For while there is a significant constituency for fighting the last war, namely the military industrial complex, and numerous billion dollar war fighting machines which can employ alot of Americans, the most important constituency we have as a nation is the tip of the spear, or the young men and women who put their lives on the line to fight out our politicians' battles.
I thought the book was fascinating and should be read by all policy makers before sending our soldiers into battle. After all, this is the kind of warfare we are likely to face for decades to come.
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
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