The Post Surge Strategy

Certain politicians, most recently Richard Luger (R - IN) have been attempting to advance the idea that they would like to withdraw troops from the center of Iraq (specifically from neighborhoods in and around Baghdad soldiers are clearing and attempting to hold currently) and position them on the outskirts of the country to train Iraqi troops and police officers. He said he "would support a significant withdrawal that left residual forces in Iraq to ensure that the whole area does not blow up."

I appreciate politicians trying to do to find compromise between "surge" and "withdraw," but my question for Senator Luger is, "What should we do if all hell breaks loose." Should we send our soldiers into a melee? Frankly, I think this is a ludicrous solution. Our policy makers have two clear options in this scenario: continue the counterinsurgency or withdraw all of our forces. Period. In this particular scenario, there is no middle ground.

Regardless of how we got here, we need to determine what are the consequences of our actions. What is the least bad option? Some politicians (including my beloved Ron Paul) would like to argue that, as in Vietnam, people argued about all the possible negative outcomes and the results weren't as bad as advertised. I can't say exactly if that is true. What I do know is that the North Vietnamese army exacted revenge upon those who cooperated with Americans to the tune of the deaths and incarcerations of tens of thousands of South Vietnamese. Additionally, our withdrawal created instability in the region, perhaps allowing the genocide in Cambodia to begin shortly thereafter.

Will that happen again? Is working for stability in the Middle East in the US interest? Will instability in the region be decreased or enhanced by our precipitous withdrawal? My guess is that stability in this region is in our interest and this will be enhanced by our counterinsurgency efforts. However, only history will be able to say.

For a good primer on exactly what is entailed in the "Surge," please see the following link:

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/06/understanding-current-operatio/